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Hola AI-migos,

As I type this, we're cruising through the sun-drenched landscapes of Spain, inching ever closer to our final destination in Portugal 🇵🇹 . The real tail-wagger of this journey is Luna, our furry co-pilot on her first international adventure. She's been 'barking up' new cultures with gusto, from sniffing out aromatic paellas to chasing the Atlantic breeze.

Luna's enthusiasm for every new experience is a reminder that sometimes, the best way to approach new frontiers - like Artificial Intelligence – is with a wagging tail and an open heart. 🐶

Speaking of new frontiers, today's newsletter is packed with treats that'll make your tail wag too:

• Almost 50% workers see AI as a job killer. How HR can turn AI anxiety into advantage?

• My take on Sam Altman's 2021 AI predictions: visionary or far-fetched?

• Last week's survey results: Which jobs are getting the biggest AI productivity boost?

Let's dig in! 🚀 

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How to turn AI anxiety into advantage?

From Seoul to Riyadh to Ljubljana, in the last few weeks I've witnessed a growing global AI anxiety epidemic. But in Slovenia, I met an HR director who's turning the tide:

"We're architecting a human-centric workplace where AI amplifies our people's strengths."

Her secret? Reimagining job roles, fostering continuous learning, and putting human creativity at the forefront.

The result? A workforce that sees AI as a powerful ally, not a threat.

Do you already have a human-centric AI strategy? If not…

🤝 Join us on October 16th for the "AI in HR Playbook for 2024" virtual event.

We'll dive into:

• Practical strategies to turn AI anxiety into advantage

• Global success stories

• Collaborative solutions that put humans first

Join 100+ forward-thinking HR leaders. Limited spots available - save yours here.

Sam Altman's AI Predictions: A Comprehensive 3.5-Year Retrospective

Introduction

In March 2021, Sam Altman, then CEO of OpenAI, penned "Moore's Law for Everything" a sweeping vision of AI's impact on society. Now, in October 2024, we can do reality check of his foresight. Altman's essay wasn't just a narrow prediction of AI capabilities; it was a comprehensive blueprint for a future shaped by artificial intelligence. From economic upheavals to societal transformations, Altman painted a picture of a world on the brink of unprecedented change.

Since then, AI adoption has skyrocketed in the blink of an eye. It's projected to shake up 85 million jobs by 2025, and in advanced economies, a staggering 60% of jobs will feel AI's touch. We're talking about a seismic shift that's going to redefine work, creativity, and maybe even what it means to be human.

As we dissect Altman's predictions, we'll see that while some have materialized with uncanny accuracy, others remain aspirational. My goal for this analysis is to provide you with a crucial lens through which we can understand the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in our AI-driven future.

Let’s do this 🚀 

AI Capabilities: A Timeline Check

Altman proposed a bold timeline for AI development:

1. Within 5 years (by 2026): AI reading legal documents and giving medical advice

2. Within 10 years (by 2031): AI doing assembly-line work and possibly becoming companions

3. Decades later: AI doing almost everything, including making new scientific discoveries

Reality Check (2024):

• Legal AI: Tools like Harvey AI and Lexis+ AI are now commonplace in law firms, assisting with document review and analysis. This prediction is largely on track.

• Medical AI: AI systems are supporting diagnostics and treatment plans, but haven't replaced human doctors. Progress is significant but not as comprehensive as predicted.

• Assembly-line work: Automation has increased, but widespread AI in manufacturing is still developing. We're on track but not quite at Altman's 10-year prediction yet.

• AI companions: While chatbots have become more sophisticated, true AI companions are still more science fiction than reality.

• Scientific discoveries: AI is assisting in research, but paradigm-shifting AI-led discoveries are not yet common.

Economic Impacts: The Double-Edged Sword

Altman predicted:

• Creation of phenomenal wealth

• Labor costs falling toward zero in many sectors

• Dramatic decrease in the cost of goods and services

• Potential for everything to become half as expensive every two years

Reality Check:

• Wealth creation in the AI sector has been significant, with the market size reaching $200 billion in 2024.

• Labor costs haven't fallen to zero, but AI has significantly impacted job markets, particularly in tech and service industries.

• Cost reductions have been uneven. While some tech-related goods have become cheaper, areas like healthcare and housing continue to see rising costs.

• The "half as expensive every two years" prediction hasn't materialized across the board, though some sectors (like data storage and processing) have seen dramatic cost reductions.

Societal Changes: The Great Reshuffling

Altman envisioned:

• A drastic shift in power from labor to capital

• Need for rapid and drastic policy changes to distribute wealth

• People freed up to focus on social connections, art, nature, and social good

Reality Check:

• The shift from labor to capital is observable, particularly in tech-heavy industries, but it's not as pronounced in all sectors.

• Policy changes have lagged behind technological advancements. While discussions about UBI and wealth redistribution have gained traction, we haven't seen the drastic changes Altman anticipated.

• There's a growing gig economy and increased focus on work-life balance, but we haven't seen a wholesale shift away from traditional work structures.

Policy Proposals: The Road Not (Yet) Taken

Altman proposed:

• Focus on taxing capital rather than labor

• Creation of an "American Equity Fund" funded by taxing company market value and land value

• Annual distribution of funds and company shares to all adult citizens

Reality Check:

• While there's increased discussion about capital gains taxes and wealth taxes, we haven't seen a fundamental shift away from income tax.

• The American Equity Fund hasn't been implemented, though similar ideas (like UBI) have gained more mainstream attention.

• Some cities and states have experimented with limited UBI programs, but nothing on the scale Altman proposed has been attempted.

Technological Progress: The Acceleration Continues

Altman predicted:

• A "recursive loop of innovation" where AI helps create smarter AI

• Technological progress in the next 100 years surpassing all progress since the invention of fire and the wheel

Reality Check:

• We've seen clear evidence of AI assisting in its own development, with models like GPT-4 being used to improve AI systems.

• The pace of AI advancement has indeed been rapid, though it's too early to say if it will surpass all previous technological progress combined.

Job Market Evolution: New Frontiers of Work

Altman acknowledged:

• New types of jobs will be created, as with previous technological revolutions

• Increased freedom to be creative about new forms of work due to AI-driven abundance

Reality Check:

• We've seen the emergence of new job categories like AI ethicists, prompt engineers, and AI-human collaboration specialists.

• However, the transition has been challenging for many workers, with job displacement in some sectors outpacing new job creation.

Economic System Vision: Capitalism 2.0?

Altman proposed:

• A new form of "Capitalism for Everyone" where all citizens are equity owners

• Prediction that this system would align incentives and reduce poverty

Reality Check:

• While employee ownership programs have expanded in some companies, we're far from the universal equity ownership Altman envisioned.

• Wealth inequality remains a significant issue, indicating that we haven't yet found a way to make capitalism work for everyone.

Implementation Challenges: The Devil in the Details

Altman recognized:

• Potential issues like companies trying to avoid taxes by offshoring

• Need for new systems to value land and prevent abuse of the proposed equity fund

Reality Check:

• These challenges remain relevant, with ongoing debates about corporate tax avoidance and the complexities of implementing sweeping economic reforms.

• The practical difficulties of implementing such a system have become more apparent, highlighting the gap between visionary ideas and political realities.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

Sam Altman's predictions in "Moore's Law for Everything" have proven remarkably insightful in some areas, while overly optimistic in others. The rapid progress in AI capabilities has indeed transformed many aspects of our lives and work. However, the societal and policy changes he envisioned are lagging behind technological advancements.

As we navigate this AI-driven future, the challenge lies not just in pushing the boundaries of what AI can do, but in ensuring these advancements benefit society as a whole. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether we can harness AI's potential to create a more equitable and prosperous world, or whether we'll allow it to exacerbate existing inequalities.

The future Altman envisioned is within our grasp, but realizing it will require not just technological innovation, but also social innovation, policy courage, and a commitment to ethical AI development. As we stand on the brink of this new era, it's up to all of us – technologists, policymakers, and citizens alike – to shape an AI future that works for everyone.

The AI revolution is here, evolving perhaps not exactly as Altman predicted, but revolutionary nonetheless. The question now is: how will we steer it to create the "almost unimaginably great" future he envisioned?

Community survey results

Last week I asked you:

And here are the results from almost 1,300 participants of AI Maturity Index.

Stay tuned for more insights as we are almost done and ready to share your personal AI Maturity Index reports this month!!! 🤞 

That's all for this week's AI adventure, folks! As Luna and I continue our journey through the Iberian Peninsula, we're reminded that exploring new territories – whether in AI or on the road – is all about keeping an open mind and a wagging tail.

Before you go, I'd love to hear your thoughts:

• How has AI impacted your work life?

• What's your take on Altman's predictions?

• Any burning questions for our upcoming HR x AI event?

Hit reply and let me know. Your insights might just shape our next discussion!

Until next time, keep innovating and stay curious!

Iwo

P.S. If you found value in today's newsletter, why not share it with a colleague? They can join our pack of AI enthusiasts by subscribing here.